Evidence-Based Investment Insights: The Human Factor In Evidence-Based Investing
Arguably, the most significant factor in your evidence-based investment strategy is the human factor.
It is hard, and often counterproductive, to comment about breaking news while it is still moving through the proverbial grinder, which is why we rarely do it. However, we feel it is worth commenting on the current, growing number of regional bank runs.
Before taking a look at the details, we will lead with two larger assurances:
We Are Here, As Usual
If you have informed us about cash holdings at an affected bank, we are reaching out to you directly to help you navigate your next best steps. If you have such holdings we are not yet aware of, please let us know so we can advise you accordingly.
Even if your money remains safe and sound, we are available to speak with you about any questions or concerns you have at this time. This is one of the biggest reasons you hired us, to serve as an informed sounding board during confusing times.
Our Broad Advice Remains The Same
As you know, we typically seek to optimize your personal long-term outcomes by recommending against reacting to near-term upsets. This philosophy is based on our own and others’ best thinking about how to improve your odds for investment success over time. As such, our strategy already expects that the unexpected WILL happen now and then. To a point, the stress of realized risks can even contribute to our expected returns.
Next, let’s summarize our understanding of what is happening to aid in rational decision-making.
As usual, there are a number of smoking guns. Perhaps the biggest shot has come from banks that have been holding exceptionally large reserves of low-yielding bonds in today’s higher interest rates.
In the case of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), for example, its tech-heavy clientele deposited large amounts of cash during the pandemic when the industry was awash in undeployed assets. In turn, the bank used the money to buy Treasury and other bonds. [Source]
As interest rates rose, SVB’s bond investment yields fell. Normally, this would not be a problem, whether you are a bank or an individual investor. As long as you simply hold low-yielding bonds to maturity, you can expect to be made whole at the end. But if too many of a bank’s customers pull out their money all at once, the bank may be forced to sell their low-yielding bonds at a loss to meet the sudden demand for cash. Just as in the classic film “It’s a Wonderful Life,” these sorts of bank runs can spin out of control.
In the midst of the fray, it would take far more hubris than we have to predict the future. That said, here are our observations to date:
Bank Risks
To date, it would appear that the most at-risk banks are those that are:
To expand on that second point, today (versus during the Great Depression’s bank runs), the FDIC insures up to $250,000 of each bank customer’s deposits. If you are married, each of you receive protection of up to $500,000 on a joint account. If an account exceeds FDIC limits, the excess is uninsured. In the case of SVB at year-end 2022, its deposits were valued at around $200 billion, but only about $30 billion of those deposits were insured. That translates to a lot of big accounts with uninsured balances. [Source]
Government Action
As we might expect, the government is not sitting idle as events unfold. It is “all hands on deck,” with rapid-fire announcements coming out of the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC.
As such, while the news is as noisy as usual when fear is in the air, we are cautiously optimistic a worst-case scenario is avoidable. That is no guarantee. But if we place today’s news in historical context, the banking system has been under similar and worse strains, and remained resilient.
FREE FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT
With all the uncertainty and volatility in today’s economy, the time is now to take a thorough look at your finances. To accurately plan for your financial future, you must first know where you currently stand. For these reasons, our Success Team at Impact Advisors Group is offering a free financial assessment for both individuals and business owners. Request yours today!
This post was prepared and first distributed by Wendy J. Cook.
Arguably, the most significant factor in your evidence-based investment strategy is the human factor.
Your financial goals are the lead for your financial plans. Poor planning is unlikely to take you where you want to go.
Continued research has helped us identify additional market factors at play, with additional potential premiums.
Grounding your investment strategy in rational methodology strengthens your ability to stay on course toward your financial goals.